This for me really is the biggest deal for your profitability when it comes to poker and trading. EV dictates your winrate, the more +EV situations you’re in relate directly to how successful you are and inevitably the money you earn in the long run. What really hit home recently was the poor value I was getting from my strong hands/situations and also just how little difference the marginal EV situations (when you’re unsure if you’re ahead or behind) were making to my bankroll. Not a lot.
I have been guilty of making it too easy for people to get away from making mistakes against me. Just by changing my bet sizing has given alot of my opponents enough reason to continue playing on later streets when they should have folded long ago. Given the amount of hands I play, this really should boost my income quite dramatically in the very short term, and long term aswell. Trading-wise, if i’m unsure of an outcome, so what, get rid of the trouble and move on…easy!
When i’m faced with a tough decision now, I can often just let it go and move on. It just doesn’t make as much difference as you’d think. How often are we faced with a tough decision that has practically any more than a 10-15% effect on our overall standing! I even think i’m being generous in my estimation there. It’s not necessary to be right all the time, if you can make sure you’re consistently applying the right pressure to your obviously +EV scenarios; avoid compounding errors when chasing small-variant potentially -EV ( i.e. little gain/large loss) scenarios, and thus squeezing enough “edge” out of them to cover any small mistakes you will inevitably make; then you can expect a suprisingly healthy return. In essence, the pareto principle (20% effort, 80% return & vice-versa).
+EV isn’t always about adding more skills, but mostly it’s about making more of what you already have. Maximize your existing profitability before you take on more of what you know less about.
Have your experiences shown you that making more of what you have is better than diversifying? When is the optimal time to look at new profitable opportunities that would take time away from your current activities? Please let me know by leaving a comment…
Check out RakeBreak.com for reliable rakeback. It’s where I get mine 
Filed under: Expected Value, Philosophy, Poker | Tagged: Behavioural Finance, Bet Sizing, Compounding, Decisiveness, Epiphanies, Expected Value, Finance, Focus, Life, Pareto Principle, Philosophy, Poker, Psychology, Strengths, Trading, Weaknesses, Zulu Principle
Nice article, thanks!
[...] maximising my more equitous edges than following this long shot additon to my Win rate I think. Like i’ve said before, marginal edges make very little difference overall. Poker and gambling are individual games at [...]