Poker: Long Shots & Expected Value

What i’ve been thinking about poker recently is how to get paid with my gutshots (GS) and 2-3 outers. In other words, long shots. Betting in other gambling circles has taught me that if a long shot is going to be a good bet, it will have to pay very good odds; Way over what is explicitly available. Implied odds if you like, but VERY favourable implied odds at that. For example, if I rate a bet at 10-1, someone offering me 11 or 12-1 won’t do. My own analysis and margin for error is increased due to the nature of the bet, so i’ll accept 16 or 20-1 and no less.

As much as I can see the merit in calling a GS down to a showdown, if i’m relatively sure I stack the opponent if I hit, explicit and even implied odds often fall short. I’d do better maximising my more equitous edges than following this long shot additon to my Win-rate I think. Like i’ve said before, marginal edges make very little difference overall. Poker and gambling are individual games at most times, and in my experience playing to my strengths has always served me better than worrying too much about my weaknesses. This fits that bill so I’ll be leaving the long shots to the team sports for now.